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Interest Rate Commentary

No major change to interest rate expectations last week but interest rate markets across the globe remain very sensitive to data releases. This week we expect to get some insight into US interest rate policy as July minutes are released but US interest rate futures markets remain skeptical of any increase in 2016. Domestically the focus this week is on the Wage Price Index (Wednesday) as that seems to be the key focus of the Reserve Bank.

 

The domestic yield curve is flat and overall yields across the curve are low compared to long term averages. In November 2015 there was a progressive increase in yield from ~2.60% to a high of 2.99%. But since this time the flight to quality meant the 10-year yield gave back the changes in Q4 2015 and more recently the Australian Government 10-Year Bond Yield has continued to drop to record lows (new low of 1.819% as at 2 August 2016). The 3-year bond has followed a similar pattern and broke out of its yield range (1.90 – 2.10%) in November / December 2015 reaching a high of 2.18%. It has since collapsed to reach a low of 1.373% on the 2 August 2016. On the 12th of August 2016 the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures June 2016 contract was trading at 98.515 indicating an 8% expectation of an interest rate decrease to 1.25% at the next RBA Board (down from 10% the week prior).